Bubble watch: Teams currently teetering on the brink

by Adam Taylor, 3L
Law Weekly
March 3, 2009

March is without a doubt one of the greatest months of the year, and not just because it begins with snowstorms out of freaking nowhere. No, March is a month of Madness, not least of which involves one giant bubble. As we go into tournament season, here’s a quick and dirty rundown of the teams who might be watching the CBS Selection Special not just for their seeds, but to see whether they’ll be dancing for a chance at the NCAA crown at all.

Big East

Georgetown: The Hoyas are, in a word, enigmatic. They are very efficient on offense and defense – ranking 30th and 26th respectively. They’ve gone up to Connecticut and beaten the top team in the nation on their own floor. But they’ve also been horribly inconsistent and lost ten games in the Big East. Currently 17-12, the Hoyas are on the outside looking in right now, and even a strong close to the year and a deep run in the Big East tournament may not be enough to punch their ticket to the Big Dance. Which is really unfortunate because of how good this Georgetown team is at every part of basketball except for winning games.

Big Ten

Penn State: The Nittany Lions truly are the anti-Hoyas. Georgetown has some outstanding wins and a lot of losses over the course of their season, meaning their mediocre record looks a lot worse than their number 20 KenPom ranking would indicate. Meanwhile, Penn State has won 21 games, and despite a KenPom ranking of 79, they’re almost certainly on the right side of the bubble thanks to big time wins at Michigan State and Illinois and at home over Purdue.

Michigan: Another Big Ten team with some signature wins – over Duke, UCLA, Illinois, and Purdue – but a middling KenPom (62). Unlike the Lions, though, I don’t think the Wolverines will be able to sneak into the tournament. The Maize and Blue are sitting on 18 wins, with only a trip to the Barn in Minnesota between them and the conference tournament. Only a deep run into the Big Ten can keep their hopes alive – otherwise, it’s the NIT for another year.

ACC

Maryland: Back in the local area, Gary Williams’ Terps are sitting squarely on the bubble this year. It’s uncanny how similar UMd is to the previously discussed UM. Similar KenPom (60), big signature wins over top-flight teams (North Carolina, Michigan State), and a win-count hovering just below the 20-game mark (19, with two remaining). When the two met early in the season, in College Park, the Terps held off the visitors by a scant 5 points. However, Maryland has a better shot at passing The Holy Threshold of Twenty Wins, which puts them a lot closer to the Dance than Michigan. UMd has a ways to go, and they aren’t in yet, but they could be on Selection Sunday.

SEC

Florida: Wasn’t this the year that the Gators were supposed to be “back?” A full year removed from the departure of their entire starting lineup after back-to-back championships, the Gators were supposed to waltz through a weak SEC, with competition only from Kentucky and Tennessee. Well, at least one part of the story is right: with zero teams in the top 30 of the KenPom ratings, the SEC is weak. Even Florida’s 21 wins (with two games remaining) might not be enough to get the Gators into the show in this conference. Despite a borderline unstoppable offense, some truly shoddy defense has the Gators sitting perilously on the bubble with a KenPom of 45. I think this one comes down to how weak the Selection Committee thinks the SEC is and how deep UF goes in the conference tournament. A deep run probably gets them in, but an early exit would leave the Gators as a toss-up.

Mid-Major

Creighton: What would a column on the bubble be without the obligatory mid-major? Enter the Blue Jays, who are tied for the lead on the flirting-dangerously-close-with-one-bid-status Missouri Valley Conference. Their KenPom isn’t bad (50), but it doesn’t scream “tourney lock” like Xavier’s 25 or Butler’s 38. Some of Creighton’s six losses are really inexcusable, too. I don’t think they’re in unless they lift the MVC’s Valley trophy.

The writer of this column scoffs at antiquated per-game statistics, opting instead to use the tempo-free efficiency rankings at www.kenpom.com, which he maintains are much better metrics to use when comparing teams. He also has reason to believe that the Selection Committee is starting to see things the same way.