Does spring training matter? The numbers say no

by Michael Zidar, 1L
Law Weekly
March 17, 2009

After months of waiting, Major League Baseball is almost back. On Apr. 5, the defending champion Philadelphia Phillies will host the Atlanta Braves, kicking off the 2009 season. Until that date, spring training will be the only major league action, with the spring Grapefruit and Cactus leagues providing the games. Reviewing current standings, fans of the Angels, Braves, Cardinals, Dodgers, Pirates, and Royals are happy with their teams' dominance. Unfortunately, Phillies fans are facing a 5-9 record: perhaps a far cry from the great team of last year, but does spring training really predict anything about the regular season?

Michael Wolverton of Baseball Prospectus recently wrote an article for ESPN arguing that spring training doesn't matter from a mathematical perspective, since the correlation between spring training and season performance is low. For example, from 1996 to the present day, the two best teams in spring ball (excluding the Diamondbacks, who have the best spring training win percentage but were not yet in existence for some of this period) are not the dominant regular season teams one may expect over this stretch (the Yankees and the Braves). Instead, the two best teams are the Padres (.600 win percentage in spring ball) and the Rangers (.580 win percentage in spring ball); yet, during the regular season, both of these teams have lost more games than they won.

Analyzing the teams that play in the World Series, they aren't always the teams that excel in the spring. In 2007, the Red Sox and Rockies went 15-12 and 13-12 in spring ball; however, they were still playing in October, whereas the Tigers, with their 21-10 spring record, settled for second place in the AL Central. Similarly, in 2003, the Marlins and Yankees went 15-16 and 16-13 in the spring and fought in the World Series, yet the Royals, who were 19-8 in spring training finished 83-79 for a third place finish in the AL Central. The 2005 champions, the Chicago White Sox, were the second worst team in the Cactus League that year, yet they won it all. And if Phillies fans out there are upset at their teams sub-par spring in 2009, don't fret; last year, they went 12-18, were third from the bottom in the Grapefruit League, and still won a ring.

The reasons as to why spring baseball doesn't matter are many. Along with the players who are sure to make a team, you have young minor league players battling to win a spot alongside old veterans. Look at the currently struggling Phillies: Marcus Giles has played in ten of their games. The Phillies are taking a chance on him, giving him at bats and playing time, but no one in their right mind thinks that he will ever play above a healthy Chase Utley once the season begins.

Besides the young players and old guys struggling to make a squad, you also have everyday players not playing full games and experimenting with new pitches and new swings. Also, managers are trying out players at various positions and splits. Sure, your favorite pitcher may have under-performed in a spring game, but was he using his best stuff? Was he throwing his great fastball, or experimenting with a new fourth pitch? The opposite can hold true as well. If a pitcher goes out and pitches exceptionally well, that is good news, but, whom did he face? Was the pitcher facing the best hitters on the opposing team, or did he run through some single-A players getting at bats for show?

While those factors hold true for any spring season, I argue that this one is even less of a factor for regular season success due to the World Baseball Classic. Many of the best players are participating in the tournament. The Red Sox are currently 6-9 this spring. However, Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis, two of their best players (one of whom happens to be the 2008 AL MVP) are on the USA's team, plus Jason Bay and David Ortiz played for teams in the Classic that have already been eliminated. Clearly, the Red Sox without these four players in no way resembles the team that will be fielded during the season. The Mets also are struggling in spring baseball; much like the Red Sox, many of their best players played in the World Baseball Classic: Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado, Jose Reyes, and David Wright among them.

As a fan, you'd rather see your team do well this spring. Just don't expect a great spring record to correlate with success in the regular season, and don't be too surprised if a team that played poorly this spring excels once the season begins.