Will the Detroit Lions ever learn from their mistakes?

by Matthew Rappaport, 1L
Law Weekly
March 3, 2009

As a journalist and a law student, I guess I’m still at the stage of my life when I can harbor wild dreams about my future. One of those dreams puts me in the front office of a major professional sports team. While The Law Weekly continues to be generous enough to give me a soapbox, I'll continue acting like that dream has already come true.

Today, in the Matthew Rappaport Realm of Revisionist History, I’ve been installed as the successor to embattled Lions GM Matt Millen. I'm already on the phone with all 31 other NFL franchises auctioning the first overall pick in the 2009 NFL Draft to the highest bidder.

The occupant of the Lions' GM position in the "real" world, Martin Mayhew, may well be doing just that. He's already established a veneer of knowing what he's doing: he fleeced the Dallas Cowboys for their first- and third-round selections in this Draft by sending them receiver Roy Williams. However, he'd be best served stockpiling selections and consolidating talent.

Nearly every team in recent memory that has traded a top-five selection has reaped inordinate benefits. Most prominently, the Washington Redskins traded the fifth pick of the 1999 Draft to New Orleans for all seven of the Saints' picks that year; in a trade that brought even greater benefits to the seller, the San Diego Chargers traded the number one selection in 2004 for a first-round selection, a third-round selection, a fifth-round selection, and future first round selection.

In the former trade, the Redskins' picks were mostly used as chips for further transactions, but they turned into three players who were selected to the Pro Bowl (as starters or as alternates): linebacker LaVar Arrington and tight ends Desmond Clark and Billy Miller. For such a mother lode of draft picks, that is about the worst Washington could have done. However, they still won the trade value-wise, for New Orleans used their pick on Ricky Williams, a running back who was eventually traded to Miami before he temporarily quit football to smoke weed in the Australian outback.

In the latter trade, the San Diego Chargers ended up with Pro Bowl quarterback Philip Rivers, Pro Bowl linebacker Shawne Merriman (voted Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2005), Pro Bowl kicker Nate Kaeding, and left tackle Roman Oben. Though the Giants selected Eli Manning with their pick and won Super Bowl XLII partly due to his leadership, the Chargers received excellent value and would never undo the swap if given the chance. Manning still has his detractors, and Rivers is still considered by many pundits to be the better quarterback.

The 2008 Lions were the only team in NFL history to post an 0-16 record during the regular season. They have glaring holes at every position except wide receiver. They need as many picks as possible to build up a clearly deficient pool of talent on their roster. If I’m GM, I have the Kansas City Chiefs, St. Louis Rams, and New York Jets on the phone, all of whom are in the market for likely number one selection Matt Stafford, and asking if they’re interested in my pick.

If I trust my scouts, it's very likely that I'm receiving superior value in any trade those teams might want to make with me. The standard NFL Draft Pick Value Chart being used by most front-office personnel today has been proven to overvalue first-round selections by established economists. It's why Bill Parcells, legendary architect of several teams that either appeared in or won the Super Bowl, was desperately seeking to trade the number one overall selection in the 2008 NFL Draft.

Any savvy GM in the NFL understands that the “trenches” need to be addressed before the rest of the team can succeed. In other words, an elite offensive and defensive line can make mediocre players shine in well-constructed systems. Three weeks ago, I wrote about how these players impact their teammates when an intelligent coach is at the helm. Detroit would be wise to pick up extra first- and second-round picks in order to use them on linemen. When Parcells employed that strategy in 2008 in Miami, it became an enormous factor in their 10-win leap between seasons.

Alas, it appears Mayhew will make the same mistake in Detroit that other ill-fated GMs have made before him: he will use the first overall selection on a quarterback when his offensive and defensive lines are both terrible. In 2002, the Houston Texans blundered similarly when they selected David Carr, and he was sacked so many times that he was never able to find consistent success in spite of astounding physical skills. In 2005, the San Francisco 49ers totally ignored history and threw Alex Smith behind a patchwork offensive line; though his physical limitations factored into his failures, his offensive line contributed to his woes under center.

Consider the flipside: In 1997, the St. Louis Rams selected left tackle Orlando Pace, and they won the Super Bowl two years later in spite of starting a quarterback who was undrafted. The Colts selected quarterback Peyton Manning first overall in 1998, but it took eight years (and several early draft picks on offensive linemen) before they notched a ring.

After a woeful first five years of existence, the Houston Texans drafted monster defensive end Mario Williams in 2006 to much controversy, but his emergence vaulted them back to respectability. The fans called for the Texans to draft hometown hero Vince Young, who led the University of Texas to a national championship in a dramatic victory over USC. Shows how much they know: Young flopped with the Tennessee Titans, and Williams is still flourishing.

If the Lions are smart, they'll follow the obvious trend: stockpile draft picks, and use them on linemen on both sides of the ball. Build from the “trenches” outward, and it's almost impossible to encounter failure. The April Draft will let the world know if GM Martin Mayhew knows and respects history.